We separate the need for correction, long-term risk, social burden and model uncertainty.
Holden et al.'s model (2016) estimated 49,8% myopia in the world population in 2050. It is a projection, not a measurement of the future.
145 research; extrapolating trends and replacing missing data with data from similar regions. 95% CI for 2050 : 43,4–55,7% . High myopia in this model: ≤− 5,00 D. The calculation was not made by WHO.
CLAIM-HOLDENLiang et al.'s model predicts 39,80% myopia in children and adolescents at 2050.
276 studies from 50 countries; heterogeneous protocols. 2024 Online Publication, 2025 Journal Volume. Different population and model than Holden; these numbers should not be taken away as a trend change.
CLAIM-LIANGIMI defines myopia as spherical equivalent ≤− 0,50 D and high myopia as ≤− 6,00 D with relaxed accommodation.
Pathological myopia means structural changes; is not an automatic synonym for high defect. The high myopia threshold is different from Holden 2016.
CLAIM-DEFINICJEDiopters describe refraction, while axis length and the image of eye structures provide other information. Post-correction acuity alone does not close the question about the long-term health of the eye.
The severity of myopia is associated with higher odds ratios of maculopathy, retinal detachment and some other eye diseases.
Data largely observational. The odds ratio (OR) is not the absolute risk of a particular child; definitions and reference groups vary between studies.
CLAIM-POWIKLANIAThe first level is blurred vision with an uncorrected defect. The second involves the risk of structural changes that are not removed by wearing stronger glasses.
| Complication | Low myopia | Moderate | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retinal detachment | 3,15 | 8,74 | 12,62 |
| Posterior subcapsular cataract | 1,56 | 2,55 | 4,55 |
OR is an odds ratio, not an absolute probability. Without a baseline rate, it cannot be translated into a percentage of risk for a specific person. These are observational relationships; We do not combine different measures in the table as one ranking.
A longer eye axis and greater myopia were associated with a greater risk of uncorrectable visual impairment.
Extreme axle lengths are rare. A population association cannot be turned into an individual prognosis for a child.
CLAIM-OS-OKANaidoo et al.'s model estimated the potential loss of productivity due to uncorrected myopia at 244 billion in 2015.
95% CI: 49–697 USD billion. This is a model of lost productivity, not health care expenses or the cost of all refractive errors.
CLAIM-EKONOMIAAccess to correction, diagnosis and long-term care is a systemic problem. The amounts from the productivity models are not the budget the state spent on myopia. We do not attribute the cost of all vision disorders to myopia alone.
The European meta-analysis obtained 23,5% cumulative frequency; 18,9% in studies with cycloplegia and 31,2% without it.
22 test, I²= 99,7% . This is not a percentage for Poland or an adjustment that can be applied to every study. When stratified by age and cycloplegia, the increase was less clear.
CLAIM-EUROPALance, Morgan and Grzybowski ( 2026 ) point out that global extrapolations may overestimate the future burden of parts of European populations.
Interpretive commentary, not a new national measurement and not proof that the myopia problem has disappeared.
CLAIM-EUROPA-REAPPRAISALMore recent comparable national data, uniform definitions and repeated measurements may change the assessment of trends. A strong narrative does not justify transferring the Asian frequency to Polish children.
Holden et al.'s model (2016) estimated 49,8% myopia in the world population in 2050. It is a projection, not a measurement of the future.
145 research; extrapolating trends and replacing missing data with data from similar regions. 95% CI for 2050 : 43,4–55,7% . High myopia in this model: ≤− 5,00 D. The calculation was not made by WHO.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsLiang et al.'s model predicts 39,80% myopia in children and adolescents at 2050.
276 studies from 50 countries; heterogeneous protocols. 2024 Online Publication, 2025 Journal Volume. Different population and model than Holden; these numbers should not be taken away as a trend change.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsIMI defines myopia as spherical equivalent ≤− 0,50 D and high myopia as ≤− 6,00 D with relaxed accommodation.
Pathological myopia means structural changes; is not an automatic synonym for high defect. The high myopia threshold is different from Holden 2016.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsThe severity of myopia is associated with higher odds ratios of maculopathy, retinal detachment and some other eye diseases.
Data largely observational. The odds ratio (OR) is not the absolute risk of a particular child; definitions and reference groups vary between studies.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsA longer eye axis and greater myopia were associated with a greater risk of uncorrectable visual impairment.
Extreme axle lengths are rare. A population association cannot be turned into an individual prognosis for a child.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsNaidoo et al.'s model estimated the potential loss of productivity due to uncorrected myopia at 244 billion in 2015.
95% CI: 49–697 USD billion. This is a model of lost productivity, not health care expenses or the cost of all refractive errors.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsThe European meta-analysis obtained 23,5% cumulative frequency; 18,9% in studies with cycloplegia and 31,2% without it.
22 test, I²= 99,7% . This is not a percentage for Poland or an adjustment that can be applied to every study. When stratified by age and cycloplegia, the increase was less clear.
Publication, Authors and RestrictionsLance, Morgan and Grzybowski ( 2026 ) point out that global extrapolations may overestimate the future burden of parts of European populations.
Interpretive commentary, not a new national measurement and not proof that the myopia problem has disappeared.
Publication, Authors and Restrictions